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*Opinions expressed here may or may not reflect the views of the Fernley Republican Women. Blog posts should not be considered an endorsement from the FRW.

An Apostate Environmentalist vs. the Green New Deal

3/31/2020

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​In 1971, Dr. Patrick Moore, a PhD student in ecology, helped start Greenpeace in a church basement.  He was president of Greenpeace Canada for nine years and a director of Greenpeace International for seven years.
His old friends now call him an apostate environmentalist, a turncoat and a sellout.  He says, “they are the ones who have abandoned actual science and reasonable thinking in favor of emotional fearmongering and shameless political posturing.”
I know how he feels.  In the 1970s, as a University of Illinois energy researcher and graduate student, I founded the environmental and consumer opposition to the local nuclear plants and rate hikes proposed by the power company.  I also led the fight against the airport expansion and for bikeways in Urbana, and was involved in battles against damming of rivers and blanketing the state with more freeways.
An all-purpose, deeply involved environmentalist and green weenie until 1990.  After much reading and thinking, I saw through the mistakes underlying the cause and the turns it had taken, and I outgrew it.  Now, I exemplify politically an old Nevada saying: Nobody sings louder in the church choir than the reformed whore.
On television, Moore recently said, “The whole climate crisis is not only fake news, it’s fake science.”
But what about the scientific consensus in climate research?  He calls it a sham.  “Only 36 percent of scientists agree with the end-of-the-world scenario of global warming that fuels the UN climate agenda.”  A far cry from the usual 97 percent claim of the global warming industry.
He adds, “And there is a considerable element of groupthink, herd mentality, peer pressure, political pressure, support of certain energy policies, and a desire to ‘Save the Earth’ – whether it needs to be saved or not.”
“Yes, the world is modestly warming now.  Just like we were 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period and 2,000 years ago during the Roman Warm Period.  The fact is the Earth’s climate varies naturally – with little influence from human activity.”
About the Green New Deal – of which one of its architects said, “we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing” – Moore notes:
“The cost to each American household could be as high as $150,000 – or $16.3 trillion as a total for the nation.  The impact on America’s economy as a whole would be devastating, as those costs would have to be borne by families and private citizens who would otherwise use their monies to provide for better healthcare, education, living expenses, and a host of other things.”
It would also force the vast majority of Americans to either purchase an electric car or go without a motor vehicle altogether to phase out fossil fuel use by 2035 or sooner.
Energy costs would rise 25 percent in just the first few months of implementation of the Green New Deal.  When fully implemented, our gasoline prices would reach those of Europe, $8 per gallon – four times the $2 we now pay.  In time, prices would rise even further as all fossil fuel extraction on federal lands would 2cease and new coal, gas and nuclear plants would be banned.
“Drilling and mining will come to a screeching halt in most parts of America.  Most Americans who work in the energy or mining sectors would likely lose their jobs in short order.  Meanwhile, America’s competitors – like China and Russia – are sure to grow stronger as we diminish in stature as the world’s leading economic power.”
Here’s the kicker: basic choices we take for granted – like eating red meet, using air travel, and driving SUVs – could even be banned outright.  Climate elitists consider these things wasteful extravagances that contribute to a climate “emergency.”
The Green New Deal would even give some government officials full license to enter your home and grade its “sustainability.”  It calls for retrofitting “every building” for “maximal energy efficiency.”
Ultimately, even private home ownership is threatened.  As Kian Goh, a UCLA urban planning professor, recently wrote, “If we want to keep cities safe in the face of climate change, we need to seriously question the ideal of private homeownership.”
I didn’t really leave the environmental and green movement.  It left me and all reasonable people.
Ron Knecht, MS, JD & PE(CA), has served Nevadans as state controller, a higher education regent, economist, college teacher and legislator. Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com.

Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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More Climate Change Facts and Issues

3/24/2020

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​In my last two columns, I said there have been mild global temperature increases for some time, much apparently from increasing carbon-dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, and much of that human-caused.  However, earth has had much higher CO2 levels in the past.  And in recorded history, we’ve seen significant warming and cooling cycles.
Also, projecting temperatures into the future relies on complex computer models with feedback loops, guesstimates of key parameter values, major temperature measurement problems, and large doses of judgment.  These exercises don’t have a good track record.
The key debates between climate alarmists and skeptics are the issues of impacts of warming that may occur and the need for and effects of proposed remedies, not whether there’s been some warming.
I also presented key climate-change facts found at the Heartland Institute’s web site, think@heartland.org, including the lack of warming in recent years in the U.S. and the decline in the number and severity of tornadoes and droughts.  Today, more of those facts.
Warming lengthens growing seasons, and delivers more precipitation, fewer frost events and more CO2 (an aerial fertilizer) to plants.  So, in America and around the world, these benefits of warming add to the effects of technological progress to continuously increase crop yields and improve diets and health.  Also, increased precipitation lowers drought levels.
Heartland states: “There has been no evidence of increased flooding frequency or severity as the climate modestly warms.”  They cite findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and academic studies that come to the same conclusion.
Average Northern Hemisphere snowpack data exist since 1966, and they show increasing trends for both fall and winter months.  After a brief decline in the 1980s, North American snowpack has been on an uptrend, while Asian and European levels have shown a slight decrease.
Heartland states there’s been no increase in hurricanes as the planet has modestly warmed.  The IPCC agrees, finding no increase in the frequency or severity of tropical cyclones.  In 2005-17, the U.S. experienced its longest ever period without a major (category three or higher) hurricane, and in 2009-17 we had the fewest hurricanes of any eight-year period.  Florida, our most hurricane-vulnerable state, in 2005-16 had no hurricanes of any size – its longest such period in history.
Heartland notes some global warming activists claim modestly warmer global ocean temperatures are “supercharging” the storms.  But those ideologues studiously ignore that such warming also increases wind shear that inhibits strong storms from forming and tears apart those that have already formed.  Hence, no increase in hurricane frequency and severity.
Global sea levels have been rising about a foot per century since at least 1860.  NASA satellite measurements since 1993 show acceleration of that figure by 0.3 inches per decade, raising the current increase rate to 1.5 inches per decade.  Isolated sites with higher-level rises reflect local conditions, such as tectonic plate movement and withdrawing underground fresh water reserves.
Global climate change alarmists and their mainstream media allies claimed during a recent short-term decline in Great Lakes water levels that a new normal had arrived.  In 2013, Think Progress said, “Several different climate models for the Great Lakes region all predict that lake levels will decline over the next century.”  Since 2014, the lakes have sustained levels abundantly above historic averages and have reached their highest levels ever recorded.
Heartland observes: “As often happens, alarmists claimed a climate crisis had arrived, only to be proven wrong yet again.”
Lake Mead water levels rose steadily to record heights in 1965-83 and remained above average through 2002, even as average temperatures rose.  In recent years, the Colorado River basin has seen below-average precipitation while most of the nation has enjoyed increasing precipitation, as even the IPCC has noted.  Heartland notes: “One cannot blame global warming for the few areas of below-average precipitation that remain.”
Also important to Nevada, the 2015-16 northern California drought dropped Lake Tahoe levels by about seven feet from 2011 levels, and alarmists claimed a “new normal” of low levels caused by climate change.  Since then, Lake Tahoe has reached its maximum allowable limit of nine feet above gage height each year, over seven feet above the 2016 levels.
More next time.
Ron Knecht has served Nevadans as state controller, a higher education regent, economist, college teacher and legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com.

Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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Climate Change Facts and Issues

3/17/2020

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In my last column, I said there have been mild global temperature increases for some time, much apparently from increasing carbon-dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, and much of that human-caused.  However, earth has had much higher CO2 levels in the past.  And in recorded history, we’ve seen significant warming and cooling cycles.
Also, projecting temperatures into the future is based on complex computer models involving feedback loops, guesstimates of key parameter values, major temperature measurement problems, and large doses of judgment.  These exercises don’t have a good track record in forecasting or back-casting.  Beyond mild global warming, some of it human-caused from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), much else is speculation.
Subsequently, I found a treasure trove of climate-change facts at the web site of the Heartland Institute, think@heartland.org.  Here are some key points.
“A majority of scientists (including skeptics) believe the Earth is warming and humans are playing a role, but a strong majority of scientists are not very worried about it.” [All emphases theirs.]  “The key debate between alarmists and skeptics is the issue of impacts, not whether we are causing some warming.”
They explain that all members of only one science organization, the American Meteorological Society, have been polled on climate-change issues.  Only 30 percent were very worried, 28 percent were not at all worried or not very worried, and 42 percent were merely somewhat worried.  No consensus.
Further, 40 percent believed climate change impacts have been primarily beneficial or equally mixed between beneficial and harmful.  Over the next 50 years, only half expect the impacts to be entirely or primarily harmful.  No consensus.
Heartland notes: “Alarmist position statements produced by science organizations are merely the opinions of the groups’ politicized bureaucracies rather than the member scientists.”  I note: this applies especially to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A major issue is: “Climate alarmists (and the IPCC) say we need to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times to avoid disastrous consequences, but data show we have already reached such temperatures.”
European temperature data, which include some of the longest continuous records, show temperatures began rising about 1890, well before the large 20th Century rise in CO2 emissions.  Even the IPCC recognizes that catastrophic predictions have not come true.  I note further the large increase during 1900-1945 causes a serious problem in estimating key parameters in computer models.
Also, “There has been no significant warming in the United States since at least 2005.  Any claimed recent warming and impacts at specific places in the United States are isolated and indicative of random variation rather than long-term warming.”  Over the last 30 years, warming has occurred in the western third of the country and the far northeast.  Between those areas, there has been cooling.
Heartland notes longer-term warming in the U.S. has been modest, at most.  Thermometer readings on average are no higher than 80 years ago.  However, “This has been masked in large part by government gatekeepers, who have inexplicably adjusted temperatures from past decades downward, making it appear as though recent temperatures have risen more than they have.”
Extreme weather events?  The number of tornadoes has been declining for the past 45 years.  And the number of strong tornadoes, F3 or higher, has declined dramatically.  In 2017-18, the U.S. set records for the longest periods in history without a tornado death or an F3 or stronger twister.  The two record-low years for the number of tornadoes were 2014 and 2018.
Of great concern to Nevadans, America “is benefiting from fewer and less extreme drought events as the climate modestly warms.”  In 2017 and 2019, the U.S. registered its smallest ever percentage of land area experiencing “very dry” conditions.  We’re also enjoying our longest period in recorded history with less than 40 percent of the country having “very dry” conditions.
The IPCC reports with “high confidence” that precipitation has increased over mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, including the U.S., during the last 70 years.  At the same time, IPCC has “low confidence” about any negative trends globally.
More next time, including crop production, floods, hurricanes, snowpack, sea-level rise and water levels at the Great Lakes, Lake Mead and Lake Tahoe.
Ron Knecht has served Nevadans as state controller, a higher education regent, economist, college teacher and legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com.

Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128

www.RonKnecht.net
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The Future of Fossil Fuels in an Anti-Carbon World

3/10/2020

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​Steve Welch recently gave an outstanding presentation to Reno’s Hayek Group on the future of fossil fuels in an anti-carbon world.
Steve’s a real expert, with 40 years of global experience in the energy business, primarily with Amoco Corp., BP plc and Reliance Industries of India.  He has led such businesses as global power generation (including wind and solar); North American natural gas sales, marketing and transport; North American and international refining and marketing; and global petrochemicals and China operations.  He’s been responsible for businesses with up to $95-billion annual revenues.
Let’s start with the most fundamental point: there have been mild global temperature increases for some time, some apparently from increasing carbon-dioxide (CO2) levels in our atmosphere, much of it human-caused.  However, I note: the earth has had much higher CO2 levels in the past.  And within recorded human history, we’ve seen significant warming and cooling cycles.
Projecting temperatures into the future is based on complex computer models involving feedback loops, guestimates of many parameters and major temperature measurement problems, all supplemented by large doses of judgment.  These exercises do not have a great track record in forecasting and back-casting.  Beyond the fact there has been mild global warming and some of it anthropomorphic (caused by human activity) from fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas), much else is speculation.
Back to Welch’s points.  Fossil fuels still supply 85 percent of the world’s energy, with wind and solar renewables less than four percent but growing rapidly the last decade.  And China, India and the rest of the Asia Pacific world account for three-quarters of the world’s coal use and three-eighths of oil use, but also more than 40 percent of hydroelectric generation and other renewables.
World oil use has declined significantly the last three decades.  Coal has remained more or less constant due to increases in China and India, with cuts in America and Europe.  And natural gas has risen due especially to its replacement of coal for electricity generation in North America where it’s inexpensive and plentiful.  Nuclear energy has held at four percent.
China now dwarfs all other areas in electric cars, and plans to grow that lead rapidly in the future.  But those vehicles are now just two percent of the world fleet.
CO2 emissions?  America and Europe have made continuous and significant cuts in this century, and Russia and Japan have held constant.  But the huge increases in China, India and other countries have completely swamped all that.  If China and India’s plans for the future are realized, which is not certain, world CO2 emissions will continue to sky-rocket, regardless of North America and Europe’s reductions and everyone’s increases in renewables.
The International Panel on Climate Change says limiting warming to 1.5 degrees-Centigrade is not impossible, but would require unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society.  The value of doing so is uncertain at best, due to the points I made above about forecasting future temperatures and to major disagreements about the beneficial and harmful aspects of warming.
Projections by the consultancy McKinsey are that renewables and hydroelectric will increase greatly by 2050 from 27 percent of current power generation to 73 percent, even as total generation nearly doubles.  They see coal use declining greatly in 30 years, which would hugely mitigate CO2 increases.
There are a very wide range of competent forecasts, but no serious analyses support the projections underlying the Green New Deal and similar nonsense.
Here’s what Welch expects: 1) oil demand peaks around 2030; 2) natural gas continues slow share growth into the 2030s; 3) integrated oil companies have diminishing shareholder value; 4) coal market share falls 50 percent by early 2040s; 5) greenhouse gas emissions growth slows to near zero by the early 2030s, then begins to decline; and 6) renewables reach 50 percent of electricity generation by the early 2030s.
All this seems sensible to me as a former energy research engineer and energy economics and policy expert.  Progressives, statist liberals and other leftists like Al Gore, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Greta Thunberg work themselves and their followers into a froth with mindless slogans and rants.  The adults make plans based on sensible analyses like those Welch has offered.
Ron Knecht has served Nevadans as state controller, a higher education regent, economist, college teacher and legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com.
 

Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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