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*Opinions expressed here may or may not reflect the views of the Fernley Republican Women. Blog posts should not be considered an endorsement from the FRW.

New York Times: World Facing Population Implosion

5/25/2021

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​“All over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore.”
That was the lede in the top story in Sunday’s New York Times.  It’s a recognition of a reality I first addressed a decade ago but which progressives, statists and Greens have denied.
They have lived on the dire alarmist prophesies of Paul Ehrlich from half-a-century ago.  The prologue of his 1968 book, The Population Bomb, began:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over.  In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.  At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate, although many lives could be saved through dramatic programs to ‘stretch’ the carrying capacity of the earth by increasing food production.  But these programs will only provide a stay of execution unless they are accompanied by determined and successful efforts at population control.”
Because such ideologues live on repeating simple narratives to support their collectivist political plans and not on actual science such as analyzing new data, they have insisted for 50 years that exponential population growth is inevitable and will lead to world-wide cataclysm.
Ten years ago, in my work on cost of capital (or typical returns on investments), I began to examine population growth rates and the demographic structures of economies.  This was important to determining future expected returns because those returns depend on expected economic growth rates, which depend in part on population growth rates.  I noted that birth rates, and thus population growth in the US, had been declining since the turn of the century.
Looking more widely at birth rates and population growth rates around the world, I learned that population implosion was already evident in Japan, Russia, Italy and Germany, among other countries.  And birth rates were falling nearly everywhere.  They have plummeted in China due to its evil one-child policy, which will cause that country significant economic and social problems in coming years.
Why the decline?  Research indicates that birth rates are an inverse function of women’s education levels and family income levels.  That is, as education and income levels rise, birth rates fall.  In some parts of India and Africa, birth rates are even lower than would be indicated by education and income levels.  However, Africa continues to have the highest birth rates.  I discussed these matters in speaking presentations and mentioned them in my Controller’s Annual Reports.
During the tepid economic recovery of the 2010’s, economic growth was slow and birth rates continued to fall.  So, as the Times reports now:
“Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy.  Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China.  Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.
“Like an avalanche, the demographic forces – pushing more deaths than births – seem to be expanding and accelerating. … Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time.  …
“The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatens to upend how societies are organized.”
This is what I have named the population implosion.
I first learned skepticism of Ehrlich’s population bomb shortly after he published his book, when I worked as a Research Assistant to Professor Julian Simon at the University of Illinois.  Simon understood that more people interacting with each other led to more invention, insight, innovation and economic and human growth.
I next worked for the UofI Energy Research Group, a de facto affiliate of the Club of Rome and Limits to Growth folks.  So, I was inculcated in their alarmist Green ideology.
Meantime, Simon made a famous bet with Ehrlich whether real-world results would support over five years the alarmists or Simon’s cornucopians.  Simon won.  Now, longer history has shown the alarmists are wrong on a much broader scale.
Ron Knecht is a Senior Policy Fellow with the Nevada Policy Research Institute.  He has served Nevadans as State Controller, a higher Education Regent, Senior Economist, college teacher and legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com. 
Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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Critical Theory, Systemic Racism, Social Justice & Equity: All Lies

5/18/2021

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​The terms critical (race) theory, systemic racism, social justice and equity have become so common in conversation, public policy debate and politics that readers of this column have doubtlessly heard more of them than they’d like to.  Here I argue that they are so ill-defined as to be meaningless at best and just plain lies in their common uses.
According to Wikipedia, “Critical theory is a Marxist approach to social philosophy that focuses on reflective assessment and critique of society and culture in order to reveal and challenge power structures.”  It was pioneered in the 1930s in Germany, drawing on ideas of Karl Marx and Sigmund Freud.  Instead of being a neutral attempt to describe and analyze reality, it is an agenda for political change, especially revolution.
Marxism divides people into socio-economic classes and seeks to find a path for lower classes to overthrow upper classes.  Critical theory, as developed in the 1980s and 1990s in academe, divides people into other classes and seeks to show the allegedly disadvantaged classes how to overthrow the advantaged classes.
In critical race theory, the classes are defined by racial and ethnic groups, with whites being the privileged group to be overthrown and subjugated.
The fundamental problem with critical theory is it assumes its groups or collectives are the fundamental elements of society.  And further that the members of each subjugated group, however defined (e.g., by income, ethnicity, etc.), have enough common interests to be cohesive on a sustained basis and to oppose the dominant group also on a sustained basis and for meritorious cause.
Thus, it assumes without any real attempt at proof that the dominant group unfairly exploits the dominated groups.  It simply asserts there’s no cost to members of the dominant group to continuously conspire to oppress the dominated groups.  For example, tech entrepreneurs will willingly deprive their start-ups of outstanding Indian programmers to employ and promote less-qualified whites.
Ask yourself: Have you experienced or observed such self-destructive behavior?  Or are there other reasons for certain outcomes, such as the problems customers have with communications?  For critical theory ideologues, ethnic prejudice motivates people so much as to squeeze out other motivations.
The problem with critical theory is the ridiculous assumption that people define themselves mainly by their membership in a particular group and their animus toward other groups.  Thus, people want a common language not because it makes all interaction easier and more effective, but because they want to oppress people who don’t speak that language.
Systemic racism is the assumption that such problems have become so widely and deeply embedded in society, even without the dominant groups recognizing it or meaning to, that nearly all interactions involving members of the subjugated groups with dominant group members are inherently unfair.  The net effect of all this is to continuously and systemically oppress those groups, thus resulting in nearly all members of the dominant group being unfairly advantaged and those in the other groups unfairly disadvantaged.
The problem again is analyzing society in terms of collectives and seeking to find a collective-based approach to remedying everything.  That is, the solution is coercive collectivism, such as affirmative action.
Social justice denies that the only meaningful basis for justice is individual action, responsibility and accountability.  It misses the fundamental point that collective responsibility and reward or punishment is never fair or just, but always unfair and unjust.  Some members of any group, dominant or dominated, are completely innocent and some are guilty.  Group “justice” punishes the innocent wrongly and the culpable not enough.
Social justice, consistently applied, would conclude that blacks are not as a rule better basketball players than whites.  Instead, by some hidden means not including merit, they are capturing 80 percent of professional basketball positions.  And that must be remedied by government intervention.
Finally, “equity” is a cynical attempt to displace the inherently fair and central concept of equality of opportunity with a term that justifies group-based discrimination and denies the virtue of non-discrimination.  Playing cynical games with language like this is a perennial habit of progressives and other selfish special-interest groups.  In this case, equity is the logical consequence of the critical theory, systemic racism and social justice lies.
Ron Knecht is a Senior Policy Fellow at the Nevada Policy Research Institute.  He previously served Nevadans as State Controller, a higher education Regent, Senior Economist, college teacher and Legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com. 
Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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Big Picture for Nevada Water Issues

5/11/2021

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​I recently penned a Nevada water white paper for Fred Simon, MD, running for Nevada Governor.  Here are highlights.
Colorado River annual flows are over-allocated among seven states, and reservoir storage in Lakes Powell and Mead is shrinking.  Hence, water allocations under the 1922 Colorado River Compact may be renegotiated or litigated in coming years.  Nevada needs to aggressively protect its interests in the Colorado River waters that supply 90 percent of Clark County’s needs.
More interstate water rights have been allocated by the “Law of the River” (rules, regulations and laws, including the Compact, governing the Colorado River) than there is real water on a reliable, continuous basis to satisfy them.  Fortunately, not all those water rights are currently in continuous use, especially in the Upper Colorado Basin, leaving some margin, which is rapidly diminishing with population growth and new development.
The Compact and a treaty with Mexico have allocated 16.5-million allocated acre-feet.  The problem is that tree-ring analyses suggest that the actual yearly flow over the last 1,200 years has been 14.6-million acre-feet.  And we’re currently in a long-term drought.
Fortunately, Lakes Mead and Powell reservoirs can hold a combined 56-million acre-feet.  But diversions and increased evaporation due to a Colorado River Basin drought since 2000 have reduced water levels in them to less than half their capacity.  And Upper Basin states, especially Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, are beginning to use more of their allocations.
The Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) has asked the Legislature to outlaw water-guzzling ornamental grass that people almost never walk on (“non-functional turf” in road medians, housing developments and office parks).  This unprecedented measure would reduce annual water use by 15 percent, allowing for some growth while remaining below use limits dictated by the Law of the River or falling Lake Mead water levels.
These savings would buy time to develop new conservation measures, perhaps greater Colorado River allocations, and even restoration of Lake Mead water storage to historic levels.
Clark County’s bedroom communities have embraced conservation measures, including aggressive monitoring of sprinklers and leaky irrigation systems.  Since 2003, SNWA has prohibited developers from planting green front lawns in new subdivisions.  It also offers owners of existing properties very generous rebates up to $3 per square foot to tear out sod.
But 2020 was among our driest years in history, when Las Vegas suffered a record 240 days without measurable rainfall.  Although a ban on ornamental grass may draw resistance from master-planned communities, officials believe homebuyers from wetter regions now accept such limitations.
Clark County water-saving measures such as new conservation, plus greater river allocations and revived lake storage would greatly diminish the pressures to drain water from aquifers, streams and other surface waters to the north.  North-to-south water diversion would unnecessarily raise serious policy issues,0 extensive and expensive litigation and uncertainty.
That would cause unacceptable damage to rural county resources, business and communities.
Federal projections for Lakes Mead and Powell water levels show them dropping to historic low levels in coming months that may cause the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to declare an official shortage in 2022 for the first time.  Adverse developments could cause renewed pressure on northern water sources.  Such problems may also reduce the levels of very inexpensive hydropower available to Nevada, raising electric rates.
Compounding the problem for Northern Nevada, the state and the Sierra Mountains currently face “extreme or exceptional” drought conditions.
If Clark County renews past efforts to raid Northern Nevada water, the State government would become entangled in a bitter and protracted interregional battle because water rights in Nevada ultimately belong to the State and are appropriated to users based on the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.  Here too, the problem is that more water has been appropriated than actually exists.
However, here too, water usage is not continuous at full rights levels, and so the problems have been limited.  But increasing use in the North and new claims from the South could precipitate serious issues.
There are experiments on water rights going on in the North, but they are as yet unsettled.  And existing litigation in the North is expected to continue for at least half-a-dozen years.  Hence, north-to-south flow is not a practical option.
Ron Knecht, a Nevada Policy Research Institute Senior Policy Fellow, has served Nevadans as State Controller, a higher education Regent, economist, college teacher and legislator.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com.
Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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Mom Jensen Would Have Turned 100 Last Sunday

5/3/2021

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​I wrote the following remembrance two-and-a-half years ago.
Surrounded by her loving family, Christena Kathryn Jensen departed peacefully for Heaven Wednesday, October 24, 2018 at age 97.  Daughter Kathy Knecht, granddaughter Karyn Knecht and son-in-law Ron Knecht all loved her dearly and will miss her forever.
She was born May 2, 1921 in the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn New York to wonderful parents Robert and Christena Hammond and had a younger sister Doris (who predeceased her).  When she was a girl, her father occasionally took her to Dodger games at Ebbets Field, which later made Ron envious.
Christena attended the College of William and Mary for a year before transferring to Skidmore College and obtaining her BA in 1943 as an English major.  She worked on Wall Street and then attended Columbia University’s School of Occupational Therapy, receiving a certificate in 1945.  From 1945 to 1953, she worked as an occupational therapist at four hospitals in the northeast.
In 1953, she and her friend Betty travelled to Europe, spending some months in Spain, which they enjoyed immensely.  Upon returning, Christena served three years as an occupational therapist at the Veterans Administration Hospital in Palo Alto California.
In 1958, she took an administrative job at Lockheed Missiles and Space Division in Palo Alto.  There she met LaVern C. Jensen, an engineer and later administrator at Lockheed.  Like Christena, Vern was one the nicest and most interesting people ever.  After a first dinner date, much boating and other dates, they were married in a small family ceremony November 28, 1959.
They had a great honeymoon road trip through many national parks in California, Nevada, Utah and Arizona, which only whetted their appetite for more travel.
In 1960, they drove from California to New York in her 1957 Chevy, the first of a few classic Chevies they owned.  They flew with Betty and her husband to London, where both couples had arranged to buy TR3s (red for the Jensens, white for the other couple) in which to tour Europe.
They visited the home sites of Jensen families in Norway and Sweden, and saw much of the continent during a rainy period.  They slept on a straw mattress in Venice and loved Italy.  Returning to London, they flew to New York and drove back across the continent in the Chevy because their TR3 would not arrive for some weeks.
With a new home and more boating, they were very happy.  And happier still when their only daughter Kathy arrived in 1961.  They lived for a while with Vern’s parents as they fixed up their home, but kept traveling.
Kathy stayed with her grandparents while they visited the 1965 New York World’s Fair and New England.  And in 1969, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.  The three moved to Los Altos in the 1970s, and stayed there through the 1990s.
In 1975 they went to Mexico and in 1976 returned for an extensive tour of Europe, both times taking Kathy.  The next year they made a road trip to Lily, South Dakota – now a ghost town – to show Kathy where her father’s family lived before fleeing the Dust Bowl and Great Depression with only their suitcases.
In 1979, it was the Hawaiian Islands.  Then road trips in 1983 to San Simeon and Hearst Castle and in 1985 to Texas.  Also, in 1985 they returned to England and Scotland and visited the Hammond home sites.  In 1986, it was Florida to visit relatives.  Later trips to Spain, Morocco, the Amazon and China didn’t include Kathy, who stayed home to work and take care of the pets.
Surrounded by Christena, Kathy and Ron (then engaged to Kathy), Vern died in 1997 from mesothelioma caused by his work in World War II in the Marin ship yards.
After the birth of granddaughter Karyn in 2001, the family moved to Carson City.  Ron has always said the three-generation household is ideal.  Christena was a great mentor to Kathy and said her life was greatly enriched watching Karyn grow up.
To Kathy, like Christena in many ways, she was the ideal mom.  To Karyn, the perfect grandmom.  And to Ron, the best mother-in-law ever.
Ron Knecht is a Senior Policy Fellow at the Nevada Policy Research Institute.  Contact him at RonKnecht@aol.com. 
Ron Knecht

775-882-2935
775-220-6128
 
www.RonKnecht.net
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